Russian-Japanese relations and the Chinese factor: Evolution and transformation (2012–2022)

The election of V.V. Putin for a new presidential term in 2012 and his further foreign policy initiatives affected the intensification of Russia’s foreign policy in general, as well as its Japanese direction. The article attempts to highlight the development of Russian-Japanese relations in the period of 2012–2022, including the phase of aggravation of relations after the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and Japan’s accession to the US anti-Russian sanctions, as well as the role and influence of China on the bilateral Russian-Japanese format, the East Asian region, the specifics of Chinese-American relations in the context of the “trade war” in the Japanese dimension, etc. Based on the published works of leading Russian experts, the author examines the dynamics of mutual perception of the images of Russia and Japan at the level of Russian and Japanese public opinion. Particular attention is paid to the study of the evolution of Russian-Japanese trade and economic, military-political, energy, Arctic, and humanitarian contacts. The paper traces the features of Russian, Japanese and Chinese motivations regarding regional security issues, attitudes towards the Ukrainian events, including the Russian special military operation, Moscow’s reaction to anti-Russian sanctions, towards the pressure from the United States and their allies. In general, the problem of the evolution of the notional triangle “Russia – Japan – China” at the present stage, the deformation of its key elements and the prospects for further development are formulated.

The author focuses on the coverage of Russian-Japanese contacts in the areas of regional security before and after February 24, 2022, including the South Kuril options, as well as the analysis of hidden possible Japanese political motivations during the rule of Shinzō Abe regarding the problems of the deepening of the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership and the projections of this partnership on the security of Japan and the Japanese-American military-political alliance. An important aspect of the work is the coverage of the dynamics of the Russian-Japanese political relations in the light of the Russian leadership designating Japan as an “unfriendly state” and the further development of bilateral Russian-Japanese and Russian-Chinese models of interaction in the Asia-Pacific region.

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