A new historic era in China-Japan Relations: How deep is the rapprochement and what are the reasons?

The article seeks to analyze a new stage in China-Japan relations in 2017-2019 and provide an assessment of the rapprochement in bilateral relations, explain its causes and characterize its depth. The paper begins by analyzing the key characteristics of the relationship before the current period. As a result of the escalation of the territorial dispute and a number of other factors, both China and Japan increasingly viewed each other as security threats and employed a balancing strategy. Strategic competition in Asia became a dominant trend. The following factors contributed to the rapprochement: China’s desire to mend fences with Japan as a result of deteriorating China-US relations and exacerbating strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, Japan’s wish to hedge the risks of Donald Trump’s inconsistent policy, the interest of both states in expanding economic cooperation, in particular that of China following its economic downturn, the aspirations of the two countries to stabilize their interaction in the East China Sea and avert military escalation, strong leadership and consolidation of power by both nations’ leaders, a certain improvement in the attitude of China’s population towards Japan. A conclusion is drawn that the positive dynamics between China and Japan should be regarded as a normalization of political dialogue and restoration of normal contacts. With no serious transformations of China’s or Japan’s foreign policy and security strategies, it is too early to conclude that a tangible rapprochement is actually taking place. Neither party changed its position on the territorial dispute and they remain strategic competitors for the regional order in Asia. The current stage should be more accurately characterized as conflict management, not conflict resolution. It is likely that a certain improvement of China-Japan relations is to continue in the forms beneficial to both states. However, it is unlikely to transform into tangible rapprochement, with strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific persisting.

China, Japan, China-Japan relations, East Asia, Indo-Pacific, US, Abe Shinzo, Xi Jinping

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