Japan’s China challenge within the context of normalization of Sino-Japanese relations in 2014-2018

Since 2014, both China and Japan have been pursuing a policy of normalization of their bilateral relations, which worsened after Japanese government’s decision in 2012 to nationalize three out of five disputed Senkaku islands. There are a number of factors, at times contradicting each other, that shape Japan’s contemporary policy towards China: from deep interest in intensification of trade and economic cooperation with China and in ensuring regional security, concerns over the US President D. Trump’s actions and hence over the sustainability of US-Japan close partnership and alliance, to the challenge of rising China. A specific feature of Japan’s policy towards China is that due to deep contradictions between the two countries, Tokyo views the rise of China not as bringing opportunities, but instead as a serious challenge or a potential threat. The strengthening of China’s economic and especially military power - along with North Korea’s missile and nuclear program - is seen in Tokyo as the deepest security concern. As China’s comprehensive national power strengthens, China’s foreign policy behavior becomes more assertive, foreign policy and foreign trade activities intensify, Japan’s challenge of rising China attains new dimensions. During the past several years, Tokyo has been facing a need to find an appropriate response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, to the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and to China’s intensified economic and military activities in the East China and South China Seas. This article demonstrates how the Abe Shinzo Cabinet meets the challenge of rising China under the conditions of Japan’s policy to normalize relations with its strong neighbor. Specifically, the article identifies and characterizes the Abe Cabinet’s measures to hedge the risks connected to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and China’s assertiveness in the East China and South China Seas.

«возвышение» Китая, «качественная инфраструктура», rise of China, Japan, Sino-Japanese relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), “quality infrastructure”, Senkaku, East China Sea

1. Кавасима Син. «Один пояс, один путь»: как создать многосторонние механизмы партнёрства, соперничества и сдерживания между Японией и Китаем? 25.05.2018. URL: https://www.nippon.com/ru/in-depth/a05801/ (дата обращения: 12.03.2019).

2. Киреева А.А. Позиции России и Японии по ключевым проблемам региональной безопасности и взаимодействия // Перспективы развития российско-японских отношений на новом этапе: рабочая тетрадь № 50/2019 / под ред. И.С. Иванов. М.: НП РСМД, 2019.

3. Кистанов В.О. Индо-Тихоокеанская стратегия Японии как средство сдерживания Китая // Проблемы Дальнего Востока. 2018. № 2. С. 32-43.

4. Крячкина Ю.А. «Новая эра» японо-китайских отношений? 06.11.2018. URL: https://riss.ru/analitycs/55088/ (дата обращения: 09.03.2019).

5. Стрельцов Д.В. Индо-Тихоокеанский регион как новая реальность глобальной системы международных отношений // Международная жизнь. 2018. № 9. URL: https://interaffairs.ru/jauthor/material/2076 (дата обращения: 23.02.2019).

6. Стрельцов Д. Япония: новая политика национальной безопасности // РСМД. 05.02.2014. URL: http://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/yaponiya-novaya-politika-natsionalnoy-bezopasnosti/ (дата обращения: 17.01.2019).

7. Швыдко В. Отказ США от ТТП: значение для Японии // РСМД. 01.02.2017. URL: http://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/otkaz-ssha-ot-ttp-znachenie-dlya-yaponii/ (дата обращения: 01.04.2019).

8. Announcement of “Partnership for Quality Infrastructure: Investment for Asia's Future”. 2015. URL: http://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/oda/page18_000076.html (дата обращения: 23.08.2018).

9. Asia Africa growth corridor. Partnership for Sustainable and Innovative Development. A vision document. 2017. URL: http://www.eria.org/Asia-Africa-Growth-Corridor-Document.pdf (дата обращения: 09.03.2019).

10. “Asia's Dream: Linking the Pacific and Eurasia” - Speech by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the Banquet of the 23rd International Conference on The Future of Asia. June 5, 2017. URL: https://japan.kantei.go.jp/97_abe/statement/201706/1222768_11579.html (дата обращения: 09.03.2019).

11. China’s Activities in East China Sea, Pacific Ocean, and Sea of Japan. Japan Ministry of Defense. October, 2018. URL: http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_act/sec_env/pdf/ch_d-act_201810a_e.pdf (дата обращения: 18.03.2019).

12. China's Maritime Activities in the Asia-Pacific Region and Japan's Reaction. MOFA’s video. URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5X1u4vnxXKc (дата обращения: 19.01.2019).

13. Defense of Japan 2018. URL: https://www.mod.go.jp/e/publ/w_paper/pdf/2018/DOJ2018_Digest_RU.pdf (дата обращения: 22.03.2019).

14. Drifte R. Japan’s Policy towards the South China Sea - Applying “Proactive Peace Diplomacy”? // PRIF Report No. 140. 2016. URL: http://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_publikationen/prif140.pdf (дата обращения: 11.03.2019).

15. G7 Ise-Shima Principles for Promoting Quality Infrastructure Investment. 2016. URL: https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000160272.pdf (дата обращения: 09.01.2019).

16. Hutchens G. Australia joins US-Japanese Pacific investment plan but offers no budget details // The Guardian. 31.07.2018. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/31/australia-joins-us-japanese-pacific-investment-plan-but-offers-no-budget-details (дата обращения: 02.10.2018).

17. Japan and China Conclude Memorandum on Business Cooperation in Third Countries. 10.05.2018. URL: https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2018/0510_003.html (дата обращения: 15.01.2019).

18. Japan protests over Chinese radar in disputed East China Sea drilling rig. 7.08.2016. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/07/japan-protests-over-chinese-radar-in-disputed-east-china-sea-drilling-rig (дата обращения: 20.01.2019).

19. Japan to offer aid for Indian ocean ports. May 26, 2018. URL: https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/05/25/japan-to-offer-aid-for-indian-ocean-ports.html (дата обращения: 09.02.2019).

20. Japan to propose G-20 aid rules to check China's Belt and Road. 18.03.2019. URL: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-to-propose-G-20-aid-rules-to-check-China-s-Belt-and-Road (дата обращения: 25.03.2019).

21. Japan’s Defense Budget. URL: http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_budget/ (дата обращения: 13.03.2019).

22. Japan’s National Security Strategy. 17.12.2013. URL: https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/siryou/131217anzenhoshou/nss-e.pdf (дата обращения: 14.03.2019).

23. Japan's White Paper on Development Cooperation 2017. URL: https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000406631.pdf (дата обращения: 14.03.2019).

24. Japan-India Joint Statement. November, 2016. URL: https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000202950.pdf (дата обращения: 21.03.2019).

25. JBIC Signs MOU with China Development Bank Corporation. 25.10.2018. URL: https://www.jbic.go.jp/en/information/press/press-2018/1026-011525.html (дата обращения: 25.02.2019).

26. Joint Statement on the U.S.-India-Japan Trilateral Meeting. 5.04.2018. URL: https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/04/280254.htm (дата обращения: 09.03.2019).

27. Kazuhiko Togo. Japan's Relations with Russia and China and the Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance. 16.05.2018. URL: https://www.nbr.org/publication/japans-relations-with-russia-and-china-and-the-implications-for-the-u-s-japan-alliance/ (дата обращения: 07.02.2019).

28. Military and Security Development involving the PRC 2018. URL: https://media.defense.gov/2018/Aug/16/2001955282/-1/-1/1/2018-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT.PDF (дата обращения: 09.03.2019).

29. National defense program guidelines for FY 2014 and beyond. 17.12.2013. URL: https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/2014/pdf/20131217_e2.pdf (дата обращения: 02.04.2019).

30. Smith J. Another First: U.S. and India to Hold 2+2 Dialogue in Delhi // Issue Brief. 2018. No.4897. URL: https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2018-08/IB4897.pdf (дата обращения: 09.03.2019).

31. The Current Status of China’s Unilateral Development of Natural Resources in the East China Sea. 27.09.2018. URL: https://www.mofa.go.jp/a_o/c_m1/page3e_000356.html (дата обращения: 11.03.2019).

32. The First Session of China-Japan Third-Party Market Cooperation Working Mechanism Held in Beijing. 26.09.2018. URL: http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/newsrelease/significantnews/201809/20180902790806.shtml (дата обращения: 15.03.2019).

33. The G7 Ise-Shima Summit “Expanded Partnership for Quality Infrastructure”. 2016. URL: https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/gaiko/oda/files/000241007.pdf (дата обращения: 21.03.2019).

34. The number of Chinese Government and other vessels that entered Japan’s contiguous zone or intruded into territorial sea surrounding the Senkaku islands. As of February 28, 2019. URL: https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000170838.pdf (дата обращения: 09.03.2019).

35. Tomotaka Shoji. The South China Sea: A View from Japan // NIDS Journal of Defense and Security. 2014. No. 15. URL: http://www.nids.mod.go.jp/english/publication/kiyo/pdf/2014/bulletin_e2014_7.pdf (дата обращения: 09.03.2019).

36. Xi, Abe meet on ties, reaffirm readiness to strengthen partnership // China Daily. 08.07.2017. URL: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017xivisitgermany/2017-07/08/content_30042755_2.htm (дата обращения: 17.03.2019).

37. Yoshida R. China nudges Japan on joining up in 'Belt and Road' initiative at 14th Annual Tokyo-Beijing Forum // Japan Times. 14.10.2018. URL: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/10/14/national/politics-diplomacy/china-nudges-japan-joining-belt-road-initiative-14th-annual-tokyo-beijing-forum/ (дата обращения: 09.01.2019).

38. Zhao Hong. Chinese and Japanese infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia: from rivalry to cooperation? 2018. URL: https://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Download/Dp/689.html (дата обращения: 11.03.2019).