Japan's foreign policy in the era of Trump 2.0: Will there be changes?

Abstract

The article analyzes the situation developing in the main directions of Japan's foreign policy in the light of the reappearance of Donald Trump as President of the United States of America. Trump's return was met by Japanese political and business circles, as well as the expert community and the media, with great concern about the possible destructive impact of his political and economic course on the international situation at both global and regional Indo-Pacific levels, as well as on Japanese-American and other bilateral relations.
There is a growing discussion in Japanese political science circles about the idea that Japan, given the inevitable decline of America's role in the world in the era of Trump 2.0, should significantly increase its role in the international arena. The reappearance of Trump is becoming an incentive for Tokyo to build more equal relations within the framework of the Japanese-American military alliance and, at the same time, an incentive for Japan to gain greater independence in ensuring its own security.
It is obvious, however, that the United States will remain the main guarantor of Japanese security in the coming years, and Japan will remain the outpost of American military and political strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. The Japanese-American alliance will continue to strengthen with an eye to confrontation with China, which now, from Tokyo's point of view, poses the greatest security challenge for Japan.
The reformatting of the global geopolitical and geo-economic landscapes that is emerging under the influence of Trump's “America First” policy may tactically adjust Japan's actions in the international arena, including in bilateral relations with its main partners. However, it is unlikely that it will lead to a fundamental revision of Japanese foreign policy in the near future, including the strategy of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” region, implemented by Japan jointly with the United States, focused primarily on the military, political, and economic containment of China. Multilateral mini-alliances, such as the Quad, the Japan-USA-South Korea triangle, and others, which are actively being built by the two countries, will remain important tools of this strategy.