Japan’s role in the emerging global hydrogen market

The article analyzes the current state of the emerging low-carbon hydrogen market in terms of its main parameters: capacity, geographical segments, technologies, investments, and announced projects. Estimates for the development of the low-carbon hydrogen market up to 2050 have been summarized. Barriers to its development and the reasons for different estimates of market capacity have been identified. There are three large-scale geographic market segments: the Asia-Pacific region, North America, and the European Union. The reasons why the energy transition in Japan will be based on low-carbon hydrogen are described. Japan’s state policy in this area is supported by investments and institutional conditions. The timeline of Japan’s energy policy development shows the determination to create a hydrogen economy. The goals of Japan’s international cooperation are to solve the problems of resource provision (agreements with potential exporters of hydrogen and countries provided with resources necessary for the production of new materials and equipment within the entire technological chain of hydrogen production) and to search for markets for Japanese hydrogen technologies. Japan’s main agreements with countries and regions of the world in this area and large-scale projects implemented to date in terms of creating international hydrogen supply chains are systematized. The role of Japan as an initiator of the development of international interactions and the formation of a global market for low-carbon hydrogen, as well as a market leader in terms of public policy, availability of technology, large-scale investment and international cooperation is substantiated. It has been determined that Japan’s high activity in international projects and agreements on the development of hydrogen technologies and hydrogen supply chains determines the country’s leading role in stimulating the development of the global hydrogen market at the current stage. Japan’s activity is leading to an increase in the number of international cooperation agreements, recognition by other countries of the key role of hydrogen in the energy transition, and the adoption by more and more countries of their national hydrogen strategies. It was revealed that due to the high cost of Japanese equipment used in the production of “green” hydrogen, the country is likely to lose in competition for market niches in the global hydrogen market.

1. Afanas’ev, P.A., Popov, E.Yu., & Cheremisin, A.N. (2022). Potentsial generatsii vodoroda v uglevodorodnykh plastakh [Potential for Hydrogen Generation in Hydrocarbon Reservoirs]. Neftegaz.RU, 4, 102–107. (In Russian). Retrieved June 21, 2023, from https://magazine.neftegaz.ru/articles/alternativnaya-energetika/733471-potentsial-generatsii-vodoroda-v-uglevodorodnykh-plastakh/

2. Kholkin, A. (Eds.). (2019). Perspektivy Rossii na global’nom rynke vodorodnogo topliva [Prospects for Russia in the Global Hydrogen Fuel Market]. Moscow: EnergyNet. (In Russian). Retrieved June 21, 2023, from https://www.eprussia.ru/upload/iblock/ede/ede334adeb4c282549a71d6fec727d64.pdf

3. Korneev, K.A. (2020). Politika Yaponii v oblasti razvitiya vodorodnoi energetiki [Japan’s Policy in the Field of Hydrogen Energetics Development]. Yaponskiye issledovaniya [Japanese Studies in Russia], 4, 64–77. (In Russian). http://doi.org/10.24412/2500-2872-2021-1-6-24

4. Mastepanov, A.M. & Arai, H. (2020). Vodorodnaya strategiya Yaponii [Japan’s Hydrogen Strategy]. Energeticheskaya politika, 11, 62–73. (In Russian). http://doi.org/10.46920/2409-5516_2020_11153_62

5. Podoba, Z.S. (2021). Energeticheskaya strategiya i perekhod k zelyonoy energetike v Yaponii [Energy Strategy and Transition to Green Energy in Japan]. Yaponskiye issledovaniya [Japanese Studies in Russia], 1, 6–24. (In Russian). http://doi.org/10.24412/2500-2872-2021-1-6-24

6. Vodorod: formirovanie rynka i perspektivy Rossii [Hydrogen: Market Formation and Prospects for Russia]. (2022). Moscow: Institute for Natural Monopolies Research. (In Russian).

7. De Pee, A. et al. (2022, November 23). The Clean Hydrogen Opportunity for Hydrocarbon-Rich Countries. McKinsey & Company. Retrieved June 13, 2023, from https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/the-clean-hydrogen-opportunity-for-hydrocarbon-rich-countries

8. Delaval, B. et al. (2022). Hydrogen RD&D Collaboration Opportunities: Japan. CSIRO, Australia. Retrieved June 13, 2023, from https://explore.mission-innovation.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/H2RDD-Japan-FINAL.pdf

9. Dellatte, J. (2023, March 20). Global Hydrogen Policy: Assessing Japan’s Hydrogen Society. Institute Montaigne. Retrieved July 31, 2023, from https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/global-hydrogen-policy-assessing-japans-hydrogen-society

10. Energy Outlook 2023 (2023, January). BP p.l.c. Retrieved June 21, 2023, from https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2023.pdf

11. Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation: The Hydrogen Factor (2022, January). IRENA. Retrieved June 21, 2023, from https://www.irena.org/Publications/2022/Jan/Geopolitics-of-the-Energy-Transformation-Hydrogen

12. Global Hydrogen Review 2022 (2022, September). IEA. Retrieved June 21, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2022

13. Hydrogen Patents for a Clean Energy Future (2023, January). IEA. Retrieved June 21, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/reports/hydrogen-patents-for-a-clean-energy-future

14. Japan 2021. Energy Policy Review (2021, March). IEA. Retrieved June 21, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/reports/japan-2021

15. Nakano, J. (2021, October 21). Japan’s Hydrogen Industrial Strategy. CSIS. Retrieved June 21, 2023, from https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-hydrogen-industrial-strategy

16. World Energy Outlook 2022 (2022, October). IEA. Retrieved June 21, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022